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Usefulness of severity scales for cardiogenic shock in-hospital mortality. Proposal for a new prognostic model
J M Álvarez-Avello1, F J Hernández-Pérez2, Á Herrero-Cano3
1Servicio de Anestesiología y Reanimación, Hospital Universitario Puerta de Hierro, Majadahonda, Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Anestesiología y Cuidados Intensivos, Clínica Universidad de Navarra, Madrid, Spain.
Abstract:
Cardiogenic shock (CS) is a condition comprising multiple etiologies, which associates high mortality rates. Some scoring systems have been shown to be good predictors of hospital mortality in patients admitted to Critical Care Units (CCU). The main objective of this study is to analyze their usefulness and validity in a cohort of CS patients.
Methods:
Observational unicentric study of a cohort of CS patients. SOFA, SAPS II and APACHE II scores were calculated in the first 24 h of CCU admission.
Results:
130 patients with CS were included. SOFA, SAPS II and APACHE II scores revealed good discrimination for hospital mortality: (AUC) ROC values (AUC: 0.711, 0.752 and 0.742 respectively; P = .6). Calibration, estimated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, was adequate in all cases. Acute coronary syndrome, lactate serum values, SAPS II score and vasoactive inotropic score (VIS) were found to be independent predictors for mortality, upon ICU admission. With these variables, a specific prognostic indicator was developed (SAPS-2-LIVE), which improved predictive capability for mortality in our series (AUC) ROC, 0.825 (95% CI 0.752-0.89).
Conclusion:
In this contemporary CS cohort, the aforementioned scores have been shown to have good predictive ability for hospital mortality. These findings could contribute to a more accurate risk stratification in CS.
