Estimated number of eligible patients for mechanical thrombectomy based on NIHSS and population-based Brest stroke...

Since 2015, mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is indicated as a treatment for patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO) at the acute phase of ischemic stroke. However, the number of stroke patients eligible for MT is poorly known.

The objective of our study was to estimate the number of patients eligible for thrombectomy within the first 24hours of an ischemic stroke, based on the clinical National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS).

Our study concerned all ischemic strokes which occurred between January 2013 and December 2016 recorded in the population-based Brest Stroke Registry (BSR). Based on positive predictive value and negative predictive value from articles evaluating the performance of a defined NIHSS threshold to identify LVO, we first estimated the frequency of patients with LVO and then the frequency of patients eligible for MT depending on pre-stroke modified Rankin score (mRS). Our results were extrapolated to regions of metropolitan France. Two scenarios were considered: one called "stringent criteria" with mRS ≤1 and one called "real-life" criteria with mRS ≤2.

We analyzed data from 2,025 ischemic strokes with symptom onset ≤24hours. No statistical difference between patient characteristics according to the time of hospital admission (≤6H vs. 6-24H) was observed. Based on NIHSS scores, between 23.90% and 44.20% of ischemic strokes admitted within the first six hours had LVO clinical characteristics. Among them, 14.53% to 26.87% met the ``stringent eligibility'' criteria for MT and 16.9 to 31.25% for ``real-life'' criteria. Eligible patients represented 6.32% to 11.70% of all ischemic strokes, irrespective of admission time. In France, 75 to 162 persons per million inhabitants per year were eligible for endovascular therapy, depending on including criteria. Based on activity levels recorded by the French Neuroradiology Society (SFNR) in 2018, the estimated needed increase in MT showed a heterogeneous pattern region-by-region, with the greatest need in Brittany, Pays de la Loire, and Corsica.

Based on NIHSS, our study provides coherent information concerning the estimated number of MT procedures to be performed in France: 4,877 to 10,494 ischemic strokes would be eligible each year in metropolitan France compared to the 6,596 thrombectomy procedures actually performed in 2018. Depending on the region, an estimated 10-20% to 90-100% increase in MT activity would be necessary to meet patient needs. These data suggest that there is still room for improvement in thrombectomy activity, particularly in certain regions of France, to allow equal access to MT to the entire French population.