Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 parallel transmission dynamics: Asymptomatic and symptomatic pathways.

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Public Health

Background:

• Asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 is a critical factor in disease spread.
• Understanding the combined impact of asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission is vital for outbreak management.
• Limited research exists on the synergistic effects of both transmission types on COVID-19 dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a mathematical model to assess the influence of asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission on COVID-19 outbreak dynamics.
• To analyze model sensitivity and stability concerning disease transmission parameters.
• To quantify the relative contributions of asymptomatic versus symptomatic transmission rates.

Main Methods:

• Development of a mathematical model incorporating both asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission pathways.
• Sensitivity analysis of model parameters using variance-based methods.
• Analysis of local stability at disease-free and endemic equilibrium points using the basic reproduction number (R0).

Main Results:

• The disease-free equilibrium is stable when R0 < 1, and the endemic equilibrium is stable when R0 > 1.
• Asymptomatic transmission rates have a proportionally larger impact on R0 compared to symptomatic rates (estimated between 1 and 3).
• Asymptomatic transmission plays a more significant role in driving the COVID-19 outbreak.

Conclusions:

• Asymptomatic transmission is a key driver of COVID-19 outbreaks.
• Mathematical modeling provides insights into disease dynamics and the importance of transmission routes.
• Findings can inform the development of targeted and effective public health control strategies.