China's roadmap to plastic waste management and associated economic costs

Plastic is one commonly used polymer material to support our daily lives. However, once the plastic waste enters the environment, it slowly degrades, which causes long-term and deep ecological environmental problems. As the world's largest plastic producer and consumer, China generated around 26.74 million tons of plastic waste in 2019, and has made ambitious policies to cope with the plastic waste issues. This study predicts the generation trends and management costs of plastic waste in China from 2020 to 2035 under three different scenarios (Business as usual-BAU, Current policy scenario -CPS, and Target policy scenario-TPS), in which China is divided into three regions for specific policy implications. In addition, the scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulations are used to obtain confidence interval of assessments. The results show that the plastic waste emission will be 34.82 million tons under BAU, 13.49 million tons under CPS and 2.63 million tons under TPS in 2035, respectively, and there will be significant changes in regional contributions in plastic waste emission (e.g., Eastern region: 45.7% to 9.7%; Central region:25.2% to 30.9%; Western region: 29.1% to 59.4% from 2019 to 2035 under TPS). In addition, the environmental and economic benefits increase with the rigor of plastic waste management policy as there will generate a net income of US$3.01 billion under TPS compared to the cost of US$ 2.61 billion under BAU and US$120 million under CPS. In view of this, it is vital that China develop appropriate plastic management policies based on the status of various regions, attempt to achieve economic development while reducing plastic waste emissions, and finally achieving a "win-win" situation of economy and environment.