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EU Fiscal Rules: A Look Back and the Way Forward
1European Stability Mechanism, 6a Circuit de La Foire Internationale, 1347 Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Inter Economics
|February 23, 2022
Summary
Global natural real interest rates have declined over 30 years due to slower growth, an aging population increasing savings, and wealth inequality boosting average savings rates.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Macroeconomics
- Monetary Policy
Background:
- Observed decline in natural real interest rates across advanced economies over the past three decades.
- Identification of structural factors potentially driving this trend.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explain the persistent decline in natural real interest rates.
- To analyze the impact of structural economic changes on interest rate levels.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of macroeconomic trends in advanced economies.
- Examination of the relationship between potential growth, demographics, wealth distribution, and savings rates.
Main Results:
- Identified a downward trend in potential economic growth.
- Noted the effect of population aging on increasing national savings rates.
- Highlighted the contribution of rising wealth inequality to higher average savings.
Conclusions:
- Structural factors, including slower growth, population aging, and wealth inequality, are key drivers of declining natural real interest rates.
- These factors collectively increase savings rates, exerting downward pressure on interest rates.
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