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Williamson on indicatives and suppositional heuristics.

Francesco Berto^1,2

¹Arché, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK.

Synthese

|February 23, 2022

Summary

This study questions Timothy Williamson's Suppositional Conjecture, which posits that humans primarily use a cognitive heuristic called the Suppositional Procedure to assess conditional statements. Doubts are raised about the reliability of this procedure in understanding the indicative 'if'.

Keywords:

Acceptability of conditionals Adams‘ Thesis Conditional probabilities Indicative conditionals

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Area of Science:

Philosophy of Language
Cognitive Science
Logic

Background:

Timothy Williamson defends the material conditional semantics for indicative 'if'.
He proposes the Suppositional Procedure as a cognitive heuristic for assessing conditionals.
Williamson's Suppositional Conjecture states this procedure is primary for prospective conditional assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

To examine and cast doubt on the Suppositional Procedure.
To challenge Williamson's Suppositional Conjecture regarding conditional assessment.

Main Methods:

Philosophical analysis of conditional semantics.
Critical evaluation of cognitive heuristics in reasoning.
Examination of counterexamples to the Suppositional Procedure.

Main Results:

The paper raises doubts regarding the efficacy and primary role of the Suppositional Procedure.
The conjecture that this heuristic is the main method for assessing conditionals is questioned.

Conclusions:

The Suppositional Procedure may not be as reliable or primary as conjectured.
Further investigation is needed into the cognitive processes underlying conditional assessment.