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Published on: November 10, 2023
Forecasting emergence of COVID-19 variants of concern
James Kyle Miller1, Kimberly Elenberg2, Artur Dubrawski1
1Auton Systems LLC, Pittsburgh, PA, United States of America.
Abstract:
We consider whether one can forecast the emergence of variants of concern in the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and similar pandemics. We explore methods of population genetics and identify key relevant principles in both deterministic and stochastic models of spread of infectious disease. Finally, we demonstrate that fitness variation, defined as a trait for which an increase in its value is associated with an increase in net Darwinian fitness if the value of other traits are held constant, is a strong indicator of imminent transition in the viral population.
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