Probability density function estimation for filament creation in lossy, turbulent, nonlinear media

Optical Kerr effects induced by the propagation of high peak-power laser beams through real atmospheres have been a topic of interest to the nonlinear optics community for several decades. Previous work has focused on estimating the Filamentation Onset Distance (FOD) in real atmospheres but not its statistical variance. This paper describes two ad hoc engineering models for predicting the FOD Probability Density Function (PDF) for lossy, turbulent, nonlinear media. Specifically, these models characterize the FOD variation with turbulence. One model uses a log-normal PDF with mean and variance proportional to the Rytov Variance. The other uses a gamma PDF employing the same mean and variance equations. These two PDFs will be compared to previous computer simulation results. Both show reasonable agreement between PDF predictions and computer simulation results for long-range filamentation. In fact, both give similar results, and there is no preference given to the data comparisons presented.