Climate-driven variations in suspended particulate matter dominate water clarity in shallow lakes

Secchi disk depth (SDD) has long been considered as a reliable proxy for lake clarity, and an important indicator of the aquatic ecosystems. Meteorological and anthropogenic factors can affect SDD, but the mechanism of these effects and the potential control of climate change are poorly understood. Preliminary research at Lake Khanka (international shallow lake on the China-Russia border) had led to the hypothesis that climatic factors, through their impact on suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration, are key drivers of SDD variability. To verify the hypothesis, Landsat and MODIS images were used to examine temporal trend in these parameters. For that analysis, the novel SPM index (SPMI) was developed, through incorporation of SPM concentration effect on spectral radiance, and was satisfactorily applied to both Landsat (R²= 0.70, p < 0.001) and MODIS (R²= 0.78, p < 0.001) images to obtain remote estimates of SPM concentration. Further, the SPMI algorithm was successfully applied to the shallow lakes Hulun, Chao and Hongze, demonstrating its portability. Through analysis of the temporal trend (1984-2019) in SDD and SPM, this study demonstrated that variation in SPM concentration was the dominant driver (explaining 63% of the variation as opposed to 2% due to solar radiation) of SDD in Lake Khanka, thus supporting the study hypothesis. Furthermore, we speculated that variation in wind speed, probably impacted by difference in temperature between lake surface and surrounding landscapes (greater difference between 1984-2009 than after 2010), may have caused varying degree of sediment resuspension, ultimately controlling SPM and SDD variation in Lake Khanka.