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Decision-making psychology and method under zero-knowledge context.

Neng-Gang Xie1, Meng Wang2, Ya-Yun Dai3

  • 1School of Management Science and Engineering, Anhui University of Technology, Ma'anshan, 243002, Anhui, China. xieng@ahut.edu.cn.

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Summary

This study introduces a zero-knowledge decision making (ZKDM) method for situations where decision-makers lack internal information. ZKDM leverages common features in selection branches, showing a high probability of correct choices.

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Science
  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Decision-makers often face events with unknown internal mechanisms or information.
  • A psychological tendency exists to identify common features when presented with multiple choice branches.
  • This tendency can influence decision-making processes in complex scenarios.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and evaluate a novel zero-knowledge decision making (ZKDM) method.
  • To address decision events where internal information is inaccessible to the decision-maker.
  • To leverage the tendency of identifying common features for improved decision outcomes.

Main Methods:

  • Defined feature points and feature sets for selection branches within decision events.
  • Constructed characteristic moments of the system to identify the branch with the most common characteristics.
  • Employed questionnaire surveys (n=279 and n=465) to investigate design practices and ZKDM adoption.

Main Results:

  • The ZKDM method demonstrated a high probability of arriving at the correct choice.
  • Survey results indicated that over half of respondents design decision events by first determining the correct branch.
  • 19.14% of decision-makers surveyed explicitly reported using ZKDM principles.

Conclusions:

  • The ZKDM method offers an effective approach for decision-making under conditions of uncertainty.
  • The method's effectiveness is potentially linked to common design practices where correct options are established first.
  • Empirical evidence suggests a significant portion of decision-makers intuitively or explicitly employ ZKDM strategies.