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Physiological health indexes predict deterioration and mortality in patients with COVID-19: a comparative study
Irina Strazhesko1, Olga Tkacheva1, Daria Kashtanova1
1Russian Clinical Research Center for Gerontology, Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University of the Ministry of Healthcare of the Russian Federation, Moscow 129226, Russian Federation.
Insights
Biological age and physiological health status, not just chronological age, predict severe COVID-19 outcomes. Physiological dysregulation (PD) is a key indicator of deterioration and mortality risk in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Area of Science:
- Gerontology and Infectious Diseases
- Biomarkers and Health Status Assessment
Background:
- Advanced chronological age is a primary risk factor for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
- Existing research indicates a disproportionate impact of severe or fatal COVID-19 outcomes on older adult populations.
- The role of physiological health and biological age in COVID-19 severity requires further investigation beyond chronological age.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether physiological health status and biological age indices predict COVID-19 severity and mortality.
- To evaluate the predictive power of four distinct physiological summary indices for COVID-19 outcomes.
- To determine the association between physiological dysregulation and patient deterioration or death.
Main Methods:
- Recruitment of 155 hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19, aged 26-94 years.
- Calculation of four physiological summary indices: Klemera and Doubal's biological age, PhenoAge, physiological dysregulation (PD), and integrated albuemia.
- Statistical analysis to assess the predictive value of these indices for mortality, adjusting for chronological age and sex.
Main Results:
- All four physiological indices significantly predicted the risk of death (p < 0.01) after adjusting for chronological age and sex.
- Men exhibited a 2.4-4.4 times higher likelihood of death compared to women across all models.
- Global physiological dysregulation (PD) strongly predicted deterioration (41.7% increased odds per 0.5-unit increase) and death (68.3% increased odds per 0.5-unit increase).
Conclusions:
- Physiological health status and biological age are critical determinants of severe COVID-19 outcomes, independent of chronological age.
- Physiological dysregulation emerges as a significant predictor of both clinical deterioration and mortality in COVID-19 patients.
- These findings suggest that physiological indices can serve as valuable prognostic tools for inpatient management of severe COVID-19.
Abstract:
Old age is a crucial risk factor for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with serious or fatal outcomes disproportionately affecting older adults compared with the rest of the population. We proposed that the physiological health status and biological age, beyond the chronological age itself, could be the driving trends affecting COVID-19 severity and mortality. A total of 155 participants hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 aged 26-94 years were recruited for the study. Four different physiological summary indices were calculated: Klemera and Doubal's biological age, PhenoAge, physiological dysregulation (PD; globally and in specific systems), and integrated albunemia. All of these indices significantly predicted the risk of death (p < 0.01) after adjusting for chronological age and sex. In all models, men were 2.4-4.4-times more likely to die than women. The global PD was shown to be a good predictor of deterioration, with the odds of deterioration increasing by 41.7% per 0.5-unit increase in the global PD. As for death, the odds also increased by 68.3% per 0.5-unit increase in the global PD. Our results are partly attributed to common chronic diseases that aggravate COVID-19, but they also suggest that the underlying physiological state could capture vulnerability to severe COVID-19 and serve as a tool for prognosis that would, in turn, help inpatient management.
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