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Updated: Oct 2, 2025
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Vibrio cholerae: Model Organism to Study Bacterial Pathogenesis - Interview
Published on: May 28, 2007
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DYNAMICS OF CHOLERA EPIDEMIC MODELS IN FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENTS
Tuan Anh Phan1, Jianjun Paul Tian1, Bixiang Wang2
1Department of Mathematical Sciences, New Mexico State University, 1290 Frenger Mall, MSC 3MB / Science Hall 236, Las Cruces, New Mexico 88003-8001, United State of America.
Stochastics and Dynamics
|February 28, 2022
Summary
This study introduces a stochastic model for cholera epidemics, revealing that environmental fluctuations can suppress infections. The basic stochastic reproduction value determines if cholera outbreaks will die out or persist.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Stochastic Modeling
Background:
- Deterministic models for cholera epidemics do not account for environmental fluctuations.
- Environmental factors significantly influence infectious disease dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and analyze a stochastic model for cholera epidemics incorporating environmental noise.
- To define and investigate the basic stochastic reproduction value and its role in disease dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Developed a nonlinear system of Itô stochastic differential equations for cholera.
- Conducted asymptotic analysis of the model's dynamical behaviors.
- Defined the basic stochastic reproduction value based on the deterministic R0 and noise intensities.
Main Results:
- The basic stochastic reproduction value dictates epidemic outcomes: extinction or persistence.
- High environmental noise can suppress cholera, even when the deterministic R0 > 1.
- A unique stationary ergodic distribution exists when the infection persists with bounded noise.
Conclusions:
- Stochastic models provide a more realistic framework for understanding cholera epidemics.
- Environmental fluctuations play a crucial role in cholera dynamics and can be protective.
- The basic stochastic reproduction value is a key indicator for predicting cholera extinction or persistence.
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