System Dynamics Analysis of Construction Safety Risk considering Existing Railway Lines

Existing railway line (ERL) construction safety has received significant attention during the past decades due to the high accident rate and the difficulty of progress development under the limited synthesis construction time schedule (SCTS). However, the previous literature is dominated by the construction safety of new railway lines, while research on construction safety of ERLs is limited. This paper analyzed the interactions and causal relationships between construction safety risk (CSR) and multiple factors and classified feedback loops. Hence, a system dynamics model was developed, and a series of tests were conducted to simulate the evolution of CSR under different group environments. The results indicated that (1) the CSR considering ERLs is significantly relevant to the implementation degree of SCTS. For situations where there are more delays and more schedule pressure, construction safety accidents tend to have a higher level. (2) Work efficiency is negatively related to construction safety accidents probability. The increase of work intensity could reduce schedule pressure in the short term but could increase construction safety risk in a long time. Applying both appropriate work efficiency and work intensity may achieve an acceptable result. This paper adds to the knowledge of construction safety risk management in terms of implementation and offers lessons and references for future construction safety management considering ERLs.