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Published on: July 3, 2020
Robust Mendelian randomization in the presence of residual population stratification, batch effects and horizontal
Carlos Cinelli1, Nathan LaPierre2, Brian L Hill2
1Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. cinelli@uw.edu.
Abstract:
Mendelian Randomization (MR) studies are threatened by population stratification, batch effects, and horizontal pleiotropy. Although a variety of methods have been proposed to mitigate those problems, residual biases may still remain, leading to highly statistically significant false positives in large databases. Here we describe a suite of sensitivity analysis tools that enables investigators to quantify the robustness of their findings against such validity threats. Specifically, we propose the routine reporting of sensitivity statistics that reveal the minimal strength of violations necessary to explain away the MR results. We further provide intuitive displays of the robustness of the MR estimate to any degree of violation, and formal bounds on the worst-case bias caused by violations multiple times stronger than observed variables. We demonstrate how these tools can aid researchers in distinguishing robust from fragile findings by examining the effect of body mass index on diastolic blood pressure and Townsend deprivation index.
Insights
Mendelian Randomization (MR) studies face biases from population stratification and pleiotropy. New sensitivity analysis tools help researchers assess the robustness of MR findings against these validity threats.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Statistical Genetics
Background:
- Mendelian Randomization (MR) studies are susceptible to biases like population stratification, batch effects, and horizontal pleiotropy.
- Existing methods may not fully eliminate residual biases, potentially leading to false positives in large genetic databases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a suite of sensitivity analysis tools for quantifying the robustness of MR findings.
- To enable researchers to assess the impact of validity threats on MR results.
Main Methods:
- Proposing routine reporting of sensitivity statistics to reveal minimal violation strength needed to invalidate MR results.
- Providing intuitive displays of MR estimate robustness to varying degrees of violation.
- Developing formal bounds for worst-case bias from violations stronger than observed.
Main Results:
- The developed tools allow quantification of robustness against validity threats in MR studies.
- Demonstration using body mass index effects on diastolic blood pressure and Townsend deprivation index illustrates tool utility.
- Researchers can better distinguish robust from fragile MR findings.
Conclusions:
- The sensitivity analysis tools enhance the reliability of Mendelian Randomization studies.
- These tools are crucial for identifying and mitigating potential biases in genetic epidemiology research.
- Routine use of these tools will improve the validity of conclusions drawn from MR analyses.
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