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Confidence Coefficient01:24

Confidence Coefficient

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The confidence coefficient is also known as the confidence level or degree of confidence. It is the percent expression for the probability, 1-α, that the confidence interval contains the true population parameter assuming that the confidence interval is obtained after sufficient unbiased sampling; for example, if the CL = 90%, then in 90 out of 100 samples the interval estimate will enclose the true population parameter. Here α is the area under the curve, distributed equally under...
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Interpretation of Confidence Intervals01:19

Interpretation of Confidence Intervals

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A confidence interval is a better estimate of the population than a point estimate, as it uses a range of values from a sample instead of a single value.
Confidence intervals have confidence coefficients that are crucial for their interpretation. The most common confidence coefficients are 0.90, 0.95, and 0.99, which can be written as percentages–90%, 95%, and 99%, respectively.
Suppose a person calculates a confidence interval with a confidence coefficient of 0.95. In that case, they can...
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Self-Evaluation: Self-Enhancement and Self-Verification03:00

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Social psychologists have documented that feeling good about ourselves and maintaining positive self-esteem is a powerful motivator of human behavior (Tavris & Aronson, 2008). In the United States, members of the predominant culture typically think very highly of themselves and view themselves as good people who are above average on many desirable traits (Ehrlinger, Gilovich, & Ross, 2005). Often, our behavior, attitudes, and beliefs are affected when we experience a threat to our...
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Cognitive Dissonance01:38

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Social psychologists have documented that feeling good about ourselves and maintaining positive self-esteem is a powerful motivator of human behavior (Tavris & Aronson, 2008). In the United States, members of the predominant culture typically think very highly of themselves and view themselves as good people who are above average on many desirable traits (Ehrlinger, Gilovich, & Ross, 2005). Often, our behavior, attitudes, and beliefs are affected when we experience a threat to our...
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Confidence Intervals01:21

Confidence Intervals

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An unbiased point estimate is often insufficient to predict a population estimate, such as population mean or population proportion. In this scenario, a confidence interval is used. A confidence interval is an estimate similar to a  sample proportion. However, unlike the point estimate which is a single value, the confidence interval  contains a range of values. These values have lower and upper limits, known as confidence limits, and can be designated as L1 and L2, respectively.
A...
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Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals00:54

Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals

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The confidence interval is the range of values around the mean that contains the true mean. It is expressed as a probability percentage. The interpretation of a 95% confidence interval, for instance, is that the statistician is 95% confident that the true mean falls within the interval. The upper and lower limits of this range are known as confidence limits. The confidence limits for the true mean are estimated from the sample's mean, the standard deviation, and the statistical factor...
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Oct 1, 2025

The Adventures of Fundi Intervention Based on the Cognitive and Emotional Processing in Attention Deficit Hyperactive Disorder Patients
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The Adventures of Fundi Intervention Based on the Cognitive and Emotional Processing in Attention Deficit Hyperactive Disorder Patients

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Deliberation and confidence change.

Nora Heinzelmann1,2, Stephan Hartmann2

  • 1Institute of Philosophy, Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Bismarckstrasse 1, 91054 Erlangen, Germany.

Synthese
|March 2, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Social deliberation can boost an agent's confidence and belief in a proposition. When an agent's expected objections are not raised by a peer, their self-trust and belief in the proposition rationally increase.

Keywords:
Bayesian updatingConfidenceCredenceDeliberationSocial epistemology

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Sciences
  • Cognitive Science
  • Social Psychology

Background:

  • Agents often face uncertainty about their own reliability when forming beliefs.
  • Social interaction is a common method for refining beliefs and assessing information.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether social deliberation can enhance an agent's confidence and credence in a proposition.
  • To determine the conditions under which increased confidence and credence following social deliberation are rational.

Main Methods:

  • A Bayesian model was developed to analyze the epistemic effects of social deliberation.
  • The model simulates an agent's belief updating process when expected objections are absent.

Main Results:

  • Under specific conditions, an agent's credence in a proposition increases after deliberation.
  • The agent's self-assessed reliability (confidence) concerning the proposition also increases.

Conclusions:

  • Social deliberation can rationally lead to increased belief and self-confidence.
  • The absence of expected objections during social exchange is a key factor driving this epistemic enhancement.