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Published on: June 12, 2020
Deliberation and confidence change
Nora Heinzelmann1,2, Stephan Hartmann2
1Institute of Philosophy, Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Bismarckstrasse 1, 91054 Erlangen, Germany.
Abstract:
We argue that social deliberation may increase an agent's confidence and credence under certain circumstances. An agent considers a proposition H and assigns a probability to it. However, she is not fully confident that she herself is reliable in this assignment. She then endorses H during deliberation with another person, expecting him to raise serious objections. To her surprise, however, the other person does not raise any objections to H. How should her attitudes toward H change? It seems plausible that she should (i) increase the credence she assigns to H and, at the same time, (ii) increase the reliability she assigns to herself concerning H (i.e. her confidence). A Bayesian model helps us to investigate under what conditions, if any, this is rational.
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