Change in alcohol outcome expectancies from childhood to emerging adulthood: A meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

Knowledge on the development of alcohol outcome expectancies (AOE) is relevant because AOE predict change in drinking behaviours. The present meta-analysis integrates results of longitudinal studies on change in AOE from childhood to emerging adulthood (age 23/24).

A systematic search in electronic databases identified 64 studies that were analysed with three-level meta-analyses.

AOE about positive and social consequences tended to increase, on average, from childhood to middle or late adolescence, respectively. In contrast, negative AOE declined over time. Change in positive, social and tension reduction AOE were described as an inverted u-shaped curve. The strongest increase of more than two standard deviation units was observed with regard to social AOE between the age of 7 and 16, followed by small decline in the transition to emerging adulthood.

The meta-analysis found evidence for strong increases of positive AOE from childhood to middle or late adolescence.

The results inform about reasonable age-ranges for expectancy-challenging interventions. To obtain a clearer picture of change in AOE beyond adolescence, longitudinal research is needed on younger children and beyond college age.