Key mitigation regions and strategies for CO₂ emission reduction in China based on STIRPAT and ARIMA models

China is facing increasing pressure to reduce CO₂ emissions from energy consumption. Given this issue, understanding the characteristics, influencing factors, and trends can provide adequate information for decision-makers to solve the CO₂ emission problem. This study analyzes the characteristics of CO₂ emissions from energy consumption in 30 regions of China from 2005 to 2018 and applies the STIRPAT model to identify the impact of the influencing factors. Combined with the CO₂ emission trend in 2030 as predicted by the ARIMA model, the key mitigation regions and strategies reduction have been determined. Results indicate that CO₂ emissions have been increasing from 2005 to 2018 in China, thus showing the characteristic of the east being larger than the west spatially. Under the baseline scenario, these emissions will continue to rise in 2030. Carbon emissions intensity is declining, and the gap between provinces with the highest and lowest per capita CO₂ emissions is widening. Although per capita GDP is significantly positively correlated with provinces, population is the key factor influencing more provinces, followed by the proportion of the secondary industry and urbanization rate. To achieve low-carbon sustainable development, Shandong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Ningxia are considered the key regions of concern for emission reduction. The heterogeneity of CO₂ emission characteristics and influencing factors among regions provides a direction for the development of targeted and differentiated regional emission reduction strategies.