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Fractional order modelling of omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant containing heart attack effect using real data from the

Fatma Özköse1, Mehmet Yavuz2,3, M Tamer Şenel1

  • 1Erciyes University, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Kayseri, Turkey.

Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals
|March 7, 2022
PubMed

Insights

A new fractional order model examines COVID-19 spread and heart attack risk, finding increased heart attacks during Omicron surges. The risk is projected to decrease as Omicron cases decline.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Fractional Calculus

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic presents complex dynamics influenced by variants like Omicron.
  • Understanding the relationship between viral spread and cardiovascular events, such as heart attacks, is crucial.
  • Fractional differential equations offer advanced modeling capabilities for phenomena with memory and hereditary properties.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and analyze a novel fractional order pandemic model for COVID-19.
  • To investigate the spread of COVID-19, including the Omicron variant, and its correlation with heart attack incidence.
  • To assess the impact of quarantine strategies on heart attack occurrences within the pandemic context.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a fractional order pandemic model incorporating heart attack dynamics and quarantine effects.
  • Mathematical analysis of the model, including existence, uniqueness, positivity, and boundedness of solutions.
  • Calculation of the basic reproduction number using the next-generation matrix method.
  • Parameter estimation using the least squares curve fitting method with real-world data from the United Kingdom.
  • Sensitivity analysis of model parameters.
  • Numerical simulations to explore system dynamics and visualize results.

Main Results:

  • The model successfully estimated 21 parameters using real Omicron variant data from the UK.
  • Numerical simulations revealed a significant increase in heart attack cases coinciding with the initial emergence of the Omicron variant.
  • The study highlights the utility of fractional differential equations in capturing memory and hereditary aspects of disease spread.

Conclusions:

  • The fractional order model provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between COVID-19 (Omicron variant) and heart attack incidence.
  • A projected decrease in heart attack risk is anticipated as Omicron cases decline.
  • The findings underscore the importance of integrated epidemiological and cardiovascular health monitoring during pandemics.

Keywords:
Fractional order derivativeHeart attackMemory trace and hereditary traitsOmicron SARS-CoV-2 variantParameter estimation with real dataSensitivity analysis

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