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Exploring Technical Decision-Making Risks in Construction Megaprojects Using Grounded Theory and System Dynamics.

Xiaoying Tang1, Mengjun Wang1, Qian Wang2

  • 1Department of Engineering Management, School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study identifies and analyzes technical decision-making risks (TDMRs) in megaprojects using grounded theory and system dynamics. Findings reveal dynamic interactions among multilevel risks, offering insights for mitigation strategies in complex projects.

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Area of Science:

  • Construction Management
  • Risk Management
  • Systems Engineering

Background:

  • Technical decision-makings (TDMs) in construction megaprojects are inherently risky due to complexity and dynamic environments.
  • Existing research lacks a systematic exploration of technical decision-making risks (TDMRs) and their interactions in megaprojects.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To systematically identify TDMRs in megaprojects.
  • To explore the dynamic complexity and interactions of TDMRs from a systematic perspective.

Main Methods:

  • Grounded theory (GT) was employed to identify TDMRs and develop a conceptual model.
  • System dynamics (SD) was used to create a qualitative and quantitative model of TDMR interactions.
  • Model validation and simulation were performed to analyze the dynamic evolution of TDMRs.

Main Results:

  • A multilayer risk list was identified, comprising 42 index layer, 13 field layer, and 3 standard layer risk indicators.
  • System dynamics modeling demonstrated dynamic interactions and intricate influences among multilevel TDMRs.
  • The study highlights the complex interrelationships between environmental, decision-making process, and execution process risks.

Conclusions:

  • The developed framework provides a dynamic and systematic understanding of TDMRs in megaprojects.
  • Findings can assist decision-makers in identifying and mitigating complex TDMRs.
  • This research addresses a critical knowledge gap in megaproject risk management.