Multimorbidity measures differentially predicted mortality among older Chinese adults

This study aimed to examine and compare the associations between different multimorbidity measures and mortality among older Chinese adults.

Using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey 2002-2018, data on fourteen chronic conditions from 13,144 participants aged ≥65 years were collected. Multimorbidity measures included condition counts, multimorbidity patterns (examined by exploratory factor analysis), and multimorbidity trajectories (examined by a group-based trajectory model). Mortality risk associated with different multimorbidity measures was each analyzed using Cox regression. C-statistic, the Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI), and the Net Reclassification Index (NRI) were used to compare the performance of different multimorbidity measures.

Participants with multimorbidity, regardless of measurements, had a higher risk of death compared with people without multimorbidity. Compared with the mortality prediction model using age and sex, C-statistics showed added discrimination (over 0.77, all P < .05) for models with multimorbidity measures. Multimorbidity trajectory showed integrated discrimination and net reclassification improvement for mortality prediction compared to condition count (IDI = 0.042, NRI = 0.033) and multimorbidity pattern (IDI = 0.041, NRI = 0.069).

Adding multimorbidity measures significantly improved the performance of a mortality prediction model using age and sex as predictors. Trajectory-based measures of multimorbidity performed better than count- and pattern-based measures for mortality prediction.