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A Risk Decision-Making Model Based on Kalman Filter for Intellectual Property Pledge Financing
Xianan Yin1, Hua Ming1, Xinzhong Bao1
1Management College, Beijing Union University, Beijing 100101, China.
This study introduces a novel financing risk decision-making model for intellectual property (IP) pledge financing. The model accurately predicts financing risks for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), aiding financial decision-making.
Area of Science:
- Financial Risk Management
- SME Financing
- Intellectual Property Management
Background:
- Intellectual property (IP) pledge financing is crucial for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) facing financial challenges.
- Financing risk associated with IP pledge loans is higher than traditional mortgage loans, necessitating robust risk assessment.
- Effective risk dynamic early warning systems are vital for informed financial decision-making in IP pledge financing.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a dynamic early warning model for financing risk in intellectual property (IP) pledge financing.
- To identify key variables influencing financing risk in IP pledge scenarios.
- To enhance decision-making processes for IP pledge financing for technologically advanced SMEs.
Main Methods:
- Implementation of a Kalman filter-based model for pledge financing risk assessment.
- Application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to extract critical variables impacting financing risk.
- Empirical testing of the model using data from 88 listed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
Main Results:
- The developed model demonstrates a high overall recognition accuracy of 89.1%.
- The average error between predicted and real financing risk values was found to be 8.5%.
- The model exhibits significant discriminant accuracy, providing reliable evidence for risk management.
Conclusions:
- The Kalman filter-based risk decision-making model offers a reliable tool for assessing IP pledge financing risks.
- The model's high accuracy supports its utility in providing evidence-based insights for financial risk management.
- This approach can significantly improve the decision-making process for IP pledge financing, particularly for SMEs.
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