Understanding human influence on climate change in China.

Area of Science:

• Climate science
• Environmental science
• Atmospheric science

Background:

• China's climate has warmed significantly since the 1950s, exceeding the global average rate.
• Climate change impacts water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and human health in China.
• Attribution of past climate changes is crucial for informing climate policies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review recent advancements in attributing observed climate changes in China over recent decades.
• To identify the primary drivers of these observed climate changes.
• To assess the human influence on temperature and precipitation extremes.

Main Methods:

• Review of scientific literature on climate change attribution in China.
• Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations.
• Assessment of anthropogenic forcings, particularly greenhouse gas emissions.

Main Results:

• Anthropogenic forcings, mainly greenhouse gas emissions, are the primary drivers of increased mean and extreme temperatures in China.
• Emerging evidence links anthropogenic forcings to changes in precipitation patterns.
• Human influence has demonstrably increased the probability of extreme heat events and likely altered heavy precipitation event probabilities.

Conclusions:

• Greenhouse gas emissions are the dominant cause of China's warming trend and temperature extremes.
• Further research is needed to fully attribute precipitation changes to human activities.
• Communicating attribution findings to non-specialists remains a challenge.