Assessing Driving Risk at the Second Phase of Overtaking on Two-Lane Highways for Young Novice Drivers Based on...

Overtaking on two-lane highways is a complex and multi-phase maneuver associated with high collision risk, especially for young novice drivers. Most of the relevant studies, however, focused mainly on the first phase, i.e., the lane-changing phase, such as willingness to overtake, while the second phase, i.e., the back-to-lane phase, has not been investigated systematically. It is a risky phase in which a driver faces the risk of collision with not only the approaching vehicle on the opposite lane but also the impeding vehicle at the original lane. In this study, by designing and conducting a driving simulator experiment, we assess the driving risk of 47 young novice drivers during their second phase of overtaking on two-lane highways. The time-to-collision (TTC) values at the two critical positions are calculated from a micro-geometric point of view, based on which a two-dimensional risk index is proposed and the fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is applied to group all the samples and to assess their overtaking risk. Furthermore, a multi-class logistic model is developed to understand the potential factors related to the risky overtaking maneuvers at this phase. The results show that most of the young novice drivers cannot make accurate judgments during their second phase of overtaking. When turning back to the original lane, they are more likely to be aware of the opposite vehicle that is approaching them, while how to correctly avoid the collision risk with the impeding vehicle at this phase is probably a more critical issue for young novice drivers.