Lowering mortality risks in urban areas by containing atmospheric pollution

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Public Health
• Urban Planning

Background:

• Limited research exists on traffic and residential heat pollutant emissions in Cyprus.
• Air quality in Nicosia, Cyprus, is influenced by traffic and domestic heating.

Purpose of the Study:

• To simulate air pollutant levels (CO, NOx, PM2.5, PM10) in Nicosia.
• To evaluate the impact of various emission control policies on air quality and human mortality.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the GRAL dispersion model to project pollution levels.
• Simulated nine traffic scenarios, including vehicle bans and electrification.
• Analyzed four cases for 2030 with traffic variations and Euro 6 compliance.
• Examined policies like diesel vehicle bans, electric vehicle adoption, and fireplace restrictions.

Main Results:

• Banning non-Euro 6 and diesel passenger/light duty vehicles could reduce average NOx concentrations from 52.9 μg/m³ to 15.0 μg/m³.
• This policy could save 70% of premature deaths attributed to NOx emissions.
• Banning fireplaces and non-Euro 6 vehicles could lower average particulate matter concentrations from 18.3 μg/m³ to 13.1 μg/m³, saving 30% of related premature deaths.

Conclusions:

• Effective policies for curbing NOx include enforcing Euro 6 standards and banning diesel passenger/light duty vehicles.
• Phasing out domestic fireplaces is the most promising strategy for reducing particulate matter by 2030.