A nomogram for predicting the risk of femoral pseudoaneurysm after neurointerventional procedures

Because femoral pseudoaneurysm (FPA) is a dangerous complication of interventional procedures with a risk of life-threatening bleeding, our aim was to develop a predictive nomogram for FPA after neurointervention, and to suggest the best method for early identification of FPA.

We searched the PubMed database for literature addressing FPA after interventional procedures to analyze the risk factors, and we also reviewed the clinical data of patients from the Department of Neurosurgery who underwent neurointerventional procedures. Selected parameters were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram was constructed using the independent risk factors by a multivariate regression model, and was validated by bootstrap resampling method, as well as receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curve. The influence on the detection rate of FPA with Doppler ultrasound was also analyzed with Fisher's exact test.

According to existing studies, female sex, diabetes and hypertension are major risk factors of FPA. Among 1,098 clinical patients, hypertension (P=0.044), higher body mass index (BMI) (P=0.020), larger sheath size (P=0.049), puncture site hematoma (P=0.011) and closure failure (P=0.003) were identified as independent risk factors. The nomogram including these factors showed robust discrimination [C-index, 0.916; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.810-1.022] with an area under the curve of 0.916. DCA indicated clinical utility, and the calibration curves showed an acceptable consistency. A significant improvement in the detection rate occurred when Doppler ultrasound was utilized (P=0.031).

The presented nomogram showed favorable predictive accuracy for FPA after neurointervention. We recommend ultrasound examination for patients at high risk of FPA evaluated by the nomogram.