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Evaluating scenarios for school reopening under COVID19
Arden Baxter1, Buse Eylul Oruc1, John Asplund1,2
1H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
School reopening strategies impact COVID-19 spread. Hybrid models balance infection reduction and in-person education, unlike regular reopening which increases cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated difficult decisions regarding safe and effective educational delivery.
- School systems worldwide grappled with strategies for in-person versus remote learning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the public health impact of various school reopening scenarios on COVID-19 transmission.
- To compare the effectiveness of different strategies in mitigating infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Main Methods:
- An agent-based simulation model was adapted to project COVID-19 outcomes in Georgia.
- Simulations assessed strategies including full closure, hybrid models, and full in-person reopening.
- The impact of universal masking in schools was also evaluated.
Main Results:
- All tested scenarios resulted in significant numbers of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.
- Compared to regular reopening, schools closed reduced infections by 13%, hybrid models by 6-11%.
- Universal masking further reduced negative health outcomes across all scenarios.
Conclusions:
- Regular school reopening strategies are associated with increased COVID-19 deaths, hospitalizations, and infections.
- Hybrid in-person and online strategies offer a balance, reducing spread while maintaining access to education.
- Optional hybrid models can benefit families and educators seeking reduced exposure.
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