Stroke unit demand in Norway - present and future estimates

Area of Science:

• Neurology
• Healthcare Management
• Public Health

Background:

• Timely admission to a stroke unit (SU) is crucial for all stroke patients.
• Most patients with suspected strokes, including stroke mimics (SM), are admitted to SUs.
• Estimating current and future SU bed capacity demand is essential for healthcare planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the current demand for stroke unit (SU) bed capacity.
• To project future SU bed capacity demand from 2020 to 2040.
• To inform healthcare authorities about potential capacity needs.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Norwegian Patient Registry data (2010-2015) for stroke incidence and length of stay (LOS) trends.
• Developed models for SM incidence and LOS using hospital data (2008-2020).
• Integrated models with population predictions to estimate regional SU demands and conducted a survey for available beds.

Main Results:

• In 2020, 361 SU beds were available against an estimated demand of 302.
• Models predict a decrease in stroke incidence, but rising SMs will increase demand to an estimated 316 beds by 2040.
• A scenario with constant 2020 stroke incidence projected a 2040 demand of 480 beds.

Conclusions:

• Decreasing stroke incidence is offset by an increasing number of stroke mimics (SMs).
• Significant uncertainty exists regarding the future trend of decreasing stroke incidence.
• Health authorities are advised to plan for a potential 50% increase in SU bed capacity demand.