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Updated: Sep 30, 2025

Author Spotlight: Advancements in Multiplex Detection of Respiratory Viruses
Published on: November 10, 2023
COVID-19 prediction of tendency for 2021 in northwestern Argentina
Eduardo Agustín Mendoza1, Octavio Bruzzone2, María Julia Dantur Juri3,4
1Fundación Miguel Lillo, Instituto de Ecología, Comportamiento y Conservación, Biología Integrativa - San Miguel de Tucumán (Tucumán), Argentina.
Abstract:
Using a lagged polynomial regression model, which used COVID-19 data from 2020 with no vaccines, the prediction of COVID-19 was performed in a scenario with vaccine administration for Tucumán in 2021. The modeling included the identification of a contagion breaking point between both series with the best correlation. Previously, the lag that served to obtain the smallest error between the expected and observed values was indicated by means of cross correlation. The validation of the model was carried out with real data. In 21 days, 18,640 COVID-19 cases out of 20,400 reported cases were predicted. The maximum peak of COVID-19 was estimated 21 days in advance with the expected intensity.
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