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Projected Aerosol Changes Driven by Emissions and Climate Change Using a Machine Learning Method.

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Future aerosol projections show significant decreases in East Asia and South Asia under low emissions. Climate change alone can drive notable shifts in particulate matter concentrations, especially under high forcing scenarios.

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric Chemistry
  • Climate Science
  • Machine Learning Applications

Background:

  • Accurate projection of future aerosols is crucial for atmospheric environment improvement and climate change mitigation.
  • The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) offers climate projections but limited aerosol data.
  • Understanding aerosol drivers is key to effective environmental policy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict near-surface aerosol concentrations from 2015 to 2100 using a machine learning approach.
  • To estimate future aerosol changes considering all important species.
  • To assess the impact of both emissions and climate change on future aerosol levels.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a machine learning model trained on global atmospheric chemistry model results.
  • Integrated CMIP6 multi-model simulations for future climate scenarios.
  • Projected particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).

Main Results:

  • PM2.5 concentrations are projected to decrease significantly (15-40%) in East Asia, South Asia, Europe, and North America by 2095 under low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5).
  • Under a high forcing scenario (SSP5-8.5), climate change alone could increase PM2.5 in northern China and western US by 10-25%.
  • Climate change significantly modulates global aerosols, with climate-driven changes comparable to emission changes in high forcing scenarios.

Conclusions:

  • Emission reductions are the primary driver for decreased aerosol pollution under low-emission pathways.
  • Climate change exerts a substantial influence on future aerosol concentrations, particularly in high forcing scenarios.
  • The interplay between climate change and anthropogenic emissions is critical for regulating future air quality.