Uncertainty and precaution in hunting wolves twice in a year

Area of Science:

• Conservation biology
• Wildlife management
• Quantitative ecology

Background:

• Societal value judgments often drive precautionary approaches to species extinction risk.
• The effectiveness and optimal design of conservation measures, especially under uncertainty, are scientific questions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantitatively assess the relationship between precaution and uncertainty in wildlife management.
• To evaluate the risk associated with Wisconsin's 2021 gray wolf hunt in relation to established population thresholds.

Main Methods:

• Utilized estimates of gray wolf (Canis lupus) population size and reproduction.
• Developed a linear model incorporating an uncertain wolf hunt for the period April 2021-April 2022.
• Incorporated three legal thresholds: 1999 population goal (350), state listing threshold (250), and extirpation (<2).

Main Results:

• The state under-counted wolf deaths in the year prior to hunts.
• Even a zero-quota hunt presents a 13% probability of crossing the 350-wolf population threshold.
• Official quota recommendations for the November 2021 hunt were found to risk undesirable outcomes.

Conclusions:

• A zero-death toll for gray wolves would be a precautionary approach.
• Proponents of hunting quotas must demonstrate the accuracy and reproducibility of their population estimates.
• The methodology is transferable to other species and can quantify risks associated with legal or social thresholds.