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Decline effects are rare in ecology.

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Decline effects, where study results change over time, are rare in ecology. Most observed changes are due to random chance, not bias, offering good news for scientific literature reliability.

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decline effecteffect sizehierarchical mixed effects modelmeta-analysismeta-meta-analysispublication bias

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Scientific methodology

Background:

  • Scientific evidence evolves with new publications.
  • Concerns exist about nonrandom, directional changes in study findings over time.
  • Decline effects, a decrease in estimated effect size over time, may bias scientific literature.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the prevalence of decline effects in ecological research.
  • To determine if published effect sizes in ecology show directional changes over time.

Main Methods:

  • Compiled data from 466 meta-analyses in ecology.
  • Analyzed trends in mean effect size over time within each meta-analysis.
  • Differentiated true decline effects from random variation and regression to the mean.

Main Results:

  • Decline effects are rare in ecological meta-analyses, occurring in only ~5% of cases.
  • Most apparent directional changes in effect size over time are attributable to regression to the mean.
  • True decline effects, when present, are not always in the direction of decline.

Conclusions:

  • Decline effects are the exception, not the rule, in the ecological literature.
  • The published scientific literature in ecology is generally a reliable guide.
  • While rare, identifying and addressing true decline effects remains important for ecological research and management.