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Updated: Sep 29, 2025

Author Spotlight: Advancing Coral Culture - Creating a Semi-Quantitatively Controlled Microenvironment System to Counter Current Limitations
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Decline effects are rare in ecology.

Laura Costello1, Jeremy W Fox1

  • 1Department of Biological Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

Ecology
|March 18, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Decline effects, where study results change over time, are rare in ecology. Most observed changes are due to random chance, not bias, offering good news for scientific literature reliability.

Keywords:
decline effecteffect sizehierarchical mixed effects modelmeta-analysismeta-meta-analysispublication bias

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Scientific methodology

Background:

  • Scientific evidence evolves with new publications.
  • Concerns exist about nonrandom, directional changes in study findings over time.
  • Decline effects, a decrease in estimated effect size over time, may bias scientific literature.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the prevalence of decline effects in ecological research.
  • To determine if published effect sizes in ecology show directional changes over time.

Main Methods:

  • Compiled data from 466 meta-analyses in ecology.
  • Analyzed trends in mean effect size over time within each meta-analysis.
  • Differentiated true decline effects from random variation and regression to the mean.

Main Results:

  • Decline effects are rare in ecological meta-analyses, occurring in only ~5% of cases.
  • Most apparent directional changes in effect size over time are attributable to regression to the mean.
  • True decline effects, when present, are not always in the direction of decline.

Conclusions:

  • Decline effects are the exception, not the rule, in the ecological literature.
  • The published scientific literature in ecology is generally a reliable guide.
  • While rare, identifying and addressing true decline effects remains important for ecological research and management.