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Relative risk (RR) is a statistical measure commonly used in epidemiology to compare the likelihood of a particular event occurring between two groups. This metric is important for evaluating the relationship between exposure to a specific risk factor and the probability of a particular outcome. It plays a crucial role in medical research, public health studies, and risk assessment. Relative risk quantifies how much more (or less) likely an event is to occur in an exposed group compared to an...
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Risk for Shoulder Conditions After Vaccination: A Population-Based Study Using Real-World Data.

Chengyi Zheng1, Jonathan Duffy2, In-Lu Amy Liu1

  • 1Department of Research & Evaluation, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Pasadena, California (C.Z., I.A.L., L.S.S., W.C., L.Q., D.S.R., S.S.K., C.M., S.J.J.).

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Vaccination rarely causes shoulder conditions, with an incidence of 0.99 per 10,000. Advanced age, female sex, and certain vaccines like pneumococcal and quadrivalent influenza increase risk in adults.

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Area of Science:

  • Immunization and Public Health
  • Musculoskeletal Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Shoulder conditions are potential adverse events following intramuscular vaccination in the deltoid muscle.
  • Limited epidemiologic data exist on the incidence and risk factors for shoulder conditions post-vaccination.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the risk of shoulder conditions after deltoid muscle vaccination.
  • To identify potential risk factors associated with these conditions.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective cohort study utilizing electronic health records from Kaiser Permanente Southern California.
  • Natural Language Processing (NLP) identified potential shoulder conditions, with manual chart review for confirmation.
  • Comparison of characteristics between vaccinated individuals with and without shoulder conditions.

Main Results:

  • An incidence of 0.99 per 10,000 vaccinations (95% CI, 0.89-1.09) was observed.
  • Adults (≥18 years) had a higher incidence (1.22) than pediatric populations (0.05).
  • Risk factors in adults included advanced age, female sex, increased prior outpatient visits, lower Charlson Comorbidity Index, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, quadrivalent influenza vaccine, and simultaneous vaccination in the elderly.

Conclusions:

  • The absolute risk for shoulder conditions following vaccination is small.
  • Clinicians should be aware of risk factors, particularly in adult populations, to mitigate potential adverse events.