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Environmental determinants predicting population vulnerability to high yellow fever incidence
Joseph L Servadio1,2, Claudia Muñoz-Zanzi1, Matteo Convertino3
1Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Royal Society Open Science
|March 23, 2022
Summary
This study identified Brazilian municipalities vulnerable to yellow fever (YF) outbreaks using environmental data. Prioritizing these areas for surveillance and prevention is crucial for controlling this mosquito-borne disease.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Environmental Science
- Public Health
Background:
- Yellow fever (YF) is an endemic mosquito-borne disease in Brazil.
- Environmental and ecohydrological factors influence YF transmission and burden.
- Some areas with low observed YF cases may still be vulnerable due to shared characteristics with high-burden areas.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the vulnerability of Brazilian municipalities to high yellow fever burden.
- To identify specific locations for prioritizing YF surveillance and prevention efforts.
Main Methods:
- Defined vulnerability into minimal, low, and high categories based on YF incidence (2000-2017).
- Utilized a cumulative logit model with environmental and ecohydrological predictors.
- Included variables such as precipitation, temperature, biome, population density, elevation, vegetation, and nearby disease occurrence.
Main Results:
- Identified municipalities with the highest probability of high YF vulnerability.
- Vulnerability hotspots were concentrated in the North and Central-West regions (2000-2016) and the Southeast region (2017).
Conclusions:
- Environmental and ecohydrological data can effectively predict YF vulnerability across Brazilian municipalities.
- Results guide targeted interventions, enhancing the efficiency of yellow fever control programs.
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