Validation for models for tumor recurrence after liver transplantation in hepatectomy patients

Early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains a challenging issue after hepatic resection (HR) because of the associated poor prognosis. Models for tumor recurrence after liver transplantation (MoRAL) have been designed to predict tumor recurrence in HCC patients in the liver transplantation setting. This study aimed to validate the predictability of MoRAL for HCC recurrence or patient death and to evaluate the predictors of early HCC recurrence in hepatectomy patients with treatment-naïve solitary HCC.

This study included 443 patients with HCC recurrence after HR from January 2005 to December 2011. Patients were stratified into early recurrence (n = 312) and late recurrence (n = 131) groups according to the development of recurrence either within or more than 2 years after hepatectomy.

The median levels of alpha-fetoprotein and protein induced by vitamin K absence-II and the median MoRAL score were significantly higher in the early recurrence group than in the late recurrence group. Regarding pathologic characteristics, the median tumor size, prevalence of tumor grade 3 or 4, microvascular invasion, presence of tumor necrosis, and macrovascular invasion in the early recurrence group were greater than those in the late recurrence group. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor grade 3 or 4, microvascular invasion, and high preoperative MoRAL score were predisposing factors for early HCC recurrence after HR.

The MoRAL score can be used to predict early recurrence in patients with HCC who undergo curative HR. Using this model, other treatments could be considered for patients with early recurrence predicted after HR.