Nomogram to predict 3-month unfavorable outcome after thrombectomy for stroke

Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is an effective treatment for large-vessel occlusion in acute ischemic stroke, however, only some revascularized patients have a good prognosis. For stroke patients undergoing MT, predicting the risk of unfavorable outcomes and adjusting the treatment strategies accordingly can greatly improve prognosis. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a nomogram that can predict 3-month unfavorable outcomes for individual stroke patient treated with MT.

We analyzed 258 patients with acute ischemic stroke who underwent MT from January 2018 to February 2021. The primary outcome was a 3-month unfavorable outcome, assessed using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), 3-6. A nomogram was generated based on a multivariable logistic model. We used the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve to evaluate the discriminative performance and used the calibration curve and Spiegelhalter's Z-test to assess the calibration performance of the risk prediction model.

In our visual nomogram, gender (odds ratio [OR], 3.40; 95%CI, 1.54-7.54), collateral circulation (OR, 0.46; 95%CI, 0.28-0.76), postoperative mTICI (OR, 0.06; 95%CI, 0.01-0.50), stroke-associated pneumonia (OR, 5.76; 95%CI, 2.79-11.87), preoperative Na (OR, 0.82; 95%CI, 0.72-0.92) and creatinine (OR, 1.02; 95%CI, 1.01-1.03) remained independent predictors of 3-month unfavorable outcomes in stroke patients treated with MT. The area under the nomogram curve was 0.8791 with good calibration performance (P = 0.873 for the Spiegelhalter's Z-test).

A novel nomogram consisting of gender, collateral circulation, postoperative mTICI, stroke-associated pneumonia, preoperative Na and creatinine can predict the 3-month unfavorable outcomes in stroke patients treated with MT.