Current and projected workforce of spinal cord injury medicine board-certified physicians through 2040

Care delivered by physicians experienced and trained in spinal cord injury medicine (SCIM) offers benefit to individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI). The American Board of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation (ABPMR) offers board certification (BC) to physicians who have met eligibility requirements. Enough individuals must earn and maintain BC in order to maintain a SCIM specialty-trained workforce. This study used demographic data of physicians with SCIM BC obtained from the ABPMR, American Board of Internal Medicine, American Board of Medical Specialties, and National Resident Matching Program. Since the SCIM Examination was first offered, 723 physicians received initial certification, and 464 physicians held BC in 2020. Peak workforce size is estimated to have occurred in 2007, and SCIM fellowship trained-BC physicians began to make up the majority of all current SCIM board-certified physicians in 2019. Models for best fit were developed with known data. Projections suggest a continued decrease in total SCIM board-certified physicians until 2034, then only a slight increase until steady state is reached with 376 SCIM board-certified physicians. If the number of individuals receiving SCIM BC remains unchanged, there will be reductions in SCIM board-certified physicians for another 15 years. Whether this supply meets demand is unknown.