Increased Prognostic Yield by Combined Assessment of Non-Contrast Computed Tomography Markers of Antithrombotic-Related Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage Expansion

Background and aims: The utility of proposed non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) markers for the prediction of hematoma expansion in patients with antithrombotic-related spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is limited. Additionally, there is significant overlap between different suggested ICH shape and density markers. Methods: We assessed the prognostic yield for hematoma expansion of a combined score incorporating features of ICH shape irregularity (satellite sign and/or Barras score ≥ 3), heterogeneous ICH density (swirl sign and/or Barras score ≥ 3) on baseline NCCT and timing from ICH onset to NCCT. Results: We evaluated data from 79 patients with antithrombotic-related spontaneous ICH (32% with hematoma expansion). Swirl (84% vs. 39%) and satellite signs (20% vs. 7%) on baseline NCCT were significantly more prevalent (p < 0.001) in patients with hematoma expansion. Patients with hematoma expansion had more irregular and heterogeneous bleeds on baseline NCCT scans, as quantified by higher (p < 0.001) Barras shape (4 (4−5) vs. 3 (2−4)) and density scores (4 (3−5) vs. 2 (1−3)), respectively. The overall diagnostic yield of the combined score (area under the curve: 0.86, 95%CI: 0.78−0.94) significantly outperformed (p < 0.001) the diagnostic yield of each individual marker. Scores of 4 or 5 in the combined score were associated with a sensitivity of 60.0%, specificity of 90.7%, overall diagnostic accuracy of 81.0%, positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 6.48, negative LR of 0.44, positive predictive value (PV) of 0.76 and negative PV of 0.83. Conclusion: Combined NCCT marker assessment seems to increase the prognostic accuracy for hematoma expansion in antithrombotic-related spontaneous ICH patients.