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What do you mean by false positive.

John A Darling1, Christopher L Jerde2, Adam J Sepulveda3

  • 1Center for Environmental Measurement & Modeling, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Misunderstandings about "false positives" hinder environmental DNA (eDNA) monitoring. Clarifying error definitions across sample and site levels, accounting for rare species, and comparing detection probabilities improves eDNA method confidence and resource management.

Keywords:
base rate fallacyerrorspecies detectionuncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Molecular Ecology
  • Conservation Biology

Background:

  • Environmental DNA (eDNA) monitoring offers a powerful tool for species detection.
  • Misinterpretations of
  • false positive
  • errors impede the widespread adoption and trust in eDNA methods.
  • Clear communication of error types is crucial for effective ecological monitoring.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify and clarify common misunderstandings of
  • false positive
  • errors in the context of eDNA monitoring.
  • To provide a framework for improving communication about detection errors among scientists, managers, and the public.
  • To enhance the reliable application of eDNA techniques in natural resource management.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptual analysis of error communication in eDNA studies.
  • Identification of three key challenges in interpreting false-positive results.
  • Discussion of solutions including clear error definitions and comparative method analysis.

Main Results:

  • Distinguishing between sample-level and site-level false positives is critical.
  • The base rate fallacy can inflate perceived false positive rates when true positives are rare.
  • Confirmation of eDNA results using conventional methods requires accounting for their own detection probabilities.

Conclusions:

  • Addressing misunderstandings of false positives will increase confidence in eDNA monitoring.
  • Standardized communication of error rates and definitions is essential.
  • Improved understanding facilitates better natural resource management decisions informed by eDNA data.