Influence of disease attenuation on relative influenza vaccine effectiveness by vaccine type

Benefit conferred by "enhanced" influenza vaccines is often measured by relative vaccine effectiveness, (rVE), which compares disease risk among groups of people who received alternative vaccines. Differences in attenuation of illness severity by vaccine types could manifest as differences in rVE. Using a simulated VE study and cohort of adults aged ≥ 65 years, we examined how rVE varied with assumptions about attenuation of disease severity conferred by standard and enhanced vaccines and how this variation could lead to differing estimates of rVE for prevention of moderate (i.e., outpatient) versus severe (i.e., inpatient) influenza illness. We found that if enhanced vaccines attenuated severe illness more than moderate illness, then rVE observed against severe disease could be higher than rVE observed against moderate disease. Thus, if differences in disease attenuation by vaccine type occurs, estimates of rVE may vary for influenza outcomes of differing levels of severity.