The demand for a COVID-19 vaccine

Area of Science:

• Health Economics
• Econometrics
• Vaccine Policy

Background:

• Accurate estimation of vaccine demand is crucial for public health policy.
• The endogeneity of price in demand estimation poses a significant challenge.
• Understanding consumer willingness to pay for vaccines informs policy interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop an analytical framework for demand estimation robust to price endogeneity.
• To estimate demand functions for COVID-19 vaccines in China and the UAE.
• To compute consumer surplus and assess the implications for vaccination policies.

Main Methods:

• Established an analytical framework using willingness to pay as a primitive.
• Developed an estimator robust to the endogeneity of price.
• Applied the framework to estimate COVID-19 vaccine demand and consumer surplus.

Main Results:

• Price elasticities of demand for COVID-19 vaccines were found to be greater than one in both China and the UAE.
• Demand is elastic, indicating potential success for subsidy policies in promoting vaccination.
• Significant consumer surplus was calculated: approximately US$58 billion in China and US$646 million in the UAE.

Conclusions:

• The developed framework provides a robust method for demand estimation in the presence of price endogeneity.
• Elastic demand for COVID-19 vaccines supports the use of subsidies to increase uptake.
• The calculated consumer surplus figures offer valuable insights for policymakers evaluating vaccine programs.