Human-health impacts of controlling secondary air pollution precursors

Exposure to ozone and fine particle (PM_2.5) air pollution results in premature death. These pollutants are predominantly secondary in nature and can form from nitrogen oxides (NO_X), sulfur oxides (SO_X), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Predicted health benefits for emission reduction scenarios often incompletely account for VOCs as precursors as well as the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) component of PM_2.5. Here, we show that anthropogenic VOC emission reductions are more than twice as effective as equivalent fractional reductions of SO_X or NO_X at reducing air pollution-associated cardiorespiratory mortality in the United States. A 25% reduction in anthropogenic VOC emissions from 2016 levels is predicted to avoid 13,000 premature deaths per year, and most (85%) of the VOC-reduction benefits result from reduced SOA with the remainder from ozone. While NO_X (-5.7 ± 0.2 % yr^-1) and SO_X (-12 ± 1 % yr^-1) emissions have declined precipitously across the U.S. since 2002, anthropogenic VOC emissions (-1.8 ± 0.3 % yr^-1) and concentrations of non-methane organic carbon (-2.4 ± 1.0 % yr^-1) have changed less. This work indicates preferentially controlling VOCs could yield significant benefits to human health.