Potential of supervised machine learning algorithms for estimating the impact of water efficient scenarios on solids...

Understanding the negative effects of widespread implementation of optimal water efficient solutions may have on existing centralised sewer systems is still limited - one of these effects is the accumulation of solids in sewer pipes. Predicting these effects requires setting up and simulating complex detailed hydraulic sewer network models. Often, precise details of the sewer network layout and diurnal patterns of the wastewater flows are not available, limiting the applicability of using model predictions for such phenomena. In this study, the applicability of supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms for the development of a simplified surrogate model to predict solid accumulation in sewer pipes was investigated. A large number of highly variable sewer networks were synthetically generated and used to produce results that can be generalizable within the limitations of the current study. A hydrodynamic sewer model was set up and simulated for each synthetic sewer network and various scenarios in which different water-efficient solutions were considered. Simulation results indicated that the most impacts are expected to occur in the upstream part of the sewer networks, and that with 50% reduction in (waste-)water flows, 3-20% more pipes are expected to accumulate solids. It was further found that ML algorithms can be used to successfully predict locations of solids accumulation in sewer pipes without using hydrodynamic models. A simple tool based on the findings of this study, sparing the need to conduct complex hydraulic simulations, was developed. It allows the user to enter a set of pipe characteristics and the proportion of flow that is reduced due to the implementation of water efficient solutions, and it predicts whether the pipe will accumulate solids or not. The study results and the proposed ML algorithms can support the implementation of optimal water-efficient solutions that will promote designing and managing the water sensitive cities of the future.