[Analysis on incidence trend of liver cancer in China, 2005-2016]

Objective: To understand the incidence trend of liver cancer in China from 2005 to 2016, and explore the correlation between the incidence trend of liver cancer and the incidence trend of hepatitis B. Methods: The incidence data of liver cancer in China from 2005 to 2016 were collected from the Annual Report of Cancer Registry in China. The incidence data of hepatitis B were collected from China Public Health Science Data Center. World standardized incidence rate (WSR) was calculated according to the World Segi's population. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of WSR of liver cancer [measured by average annual percentage change (AAPC)]. The age-period-cohort model was fitted to analyze the age, period and cohort effects in people aged 20- years and above. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to explore the correlation between the incidence of liver cancer and the incidence of hepatitis B. Results: The crude incidence of liver cancer in China showed a trend of first increase before 2009 and then relatively stable. The world standardized morbidity rate of liver cancer in China decreased from 19.11 per 100 000 in 2005 to 17.74 per 100 000 in 2016 (AAPC=-0.5%, 95%CI: -1.3%-0.3%, P=0.240). The incidence of liver cancer in male decreased significantly (AAPC=-1.0%, 95%CI: -1.5%--0.5%, P=0.001). The incidence of liver cancer in women increased from 2005 to 2010 [annual percentage change (APC)=1.7%, 95%CI: -0.1%-3.4%, P=0.059] but showed a significant decrease trend from 2010 to 2016 (APC=-1.6%, 95%CI: -2.3%--1.0%, P=0.001). From 2005 to 2016, the incidence of liver cancer showed a decreasing trend in urban areas (AAPC=-0.3%, 95%CI: -0.8%-0.3%, P=0.316) and rural areas (AAPC=-3.9%, 95%CI: -4.4%--3.3%, P<0.001). Risk for liver cancer increased with age, while the period effect showed a trend of first increase then decrease and cohort effect showed a decrease trend. The morbidity rates of both hepatitis B and liver cancer showed decrease trends from 2009 to 2016, and there was a significant correlation (r=0.71, 95%CI: 0.01-0.94, P=0.048). Conclusions: From 2005 to 2016, the morbidity rate of liver cancer in China showed a decrease trend, and there were significant gender and urban-rural area specific differences. Age effect had a great impact on the risk for liver cancer. With the progress of population aging in China, liver cancer is still a public health problem, to which close attention needs to be paid.