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Catastrophe risk can accelerate unlikely evolutionary transitions.

Andrew E Snyder-Beattie1, Michael B Bonsall1

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Catastrophes may explain the late emergence of intelligent life by undoing evolutionary progress. This suggests critical evolutionary steps might be clustered, potentially accelerating complexity towards the present.

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anthropic principleastrobiologyevolutionmajor transitionspunctuated equilibrium

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Area of Science:

  • Astrobiology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Theoretical Biology

Background:

  • Intelligent life's late emergence on Earth suggests rare evolutionary bottlenecks.
  • The Carter model posits unlikely critical steps, while neocatastrophism suggests catastrophes cause delays.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To generalize the Carter model by incorporating catastrophes that reverse evolutionary transitions.
  • To explore how catastrophes influence the timing and clustering of critical evolutionary steps.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a generalized model of evolutionary transitions incorporating setbacks from catastrophes.
  • Analyzed the impact of catastrophes on the frequency and distribution of critical evolutionary steps.

Main Results:

  • Catastrophes can lead to rapid or clustered critical steps, potentially underestimating their past number.
  • If catastrophes disproportionately affect complex life, critical steps may accelerate towards the present.
  • This acceleration could explain the increasing biological complexity over the past 500 million years.

Conclusions:

  • The interplay of critical steps and catastrophes offers a nuanced view of intelligent life's evolution.
  • Findings have implications for the Fermi paradox and the rarity of extraterrestrial intelligence.
  • Re-evaluating evolutionary transitions in light of catastrophic impacts is crucial.