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A risk score for predicting death in COVID-19 in-hospital infection: A Brazilian single-center study

Marcelo Luiz Campos Vieira1, Tania Regina Afonso1, Alessandra Joslin Oliveira1

  • 1Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil.

Journal of Clinical Ultrasound : JCU
|March 31, 2022
PubMed

Insights

A new risk score helps predict COVID-19 mortality in Brazilian hospitals. This score combines age, need for intubation, C-reactive protein, and D-dimer levels to estimate patient survival probability.

Area of Science:

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Critical Care Medicine
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Limited data exists on predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality in Brazil.
  • Understanding risk factors is crucial for patient management and resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To correlate COVID-19 mortality in Brazilian patients with demographic, biomarker, imaging, and clinical factors.
  • To develop a predictive model for in-hospital death probability.

Main Methods:

  • Prospective study of 111 consecutive COVID-19 patients in a single Brazilian tertiary center (March-August 2020).
  • Data collection included demographics, biomarkers, chest CT, echocardiograms, and clinical events.
  • Logistic regression analysis was used to identify mortality predictors.

Main Results:

  • In-hospital mortality was 18.9% (21/111 patients).
  • Key predictors of mortality included older age (>74 years), need for intubation, elevated D-dimer (>1928.5 ug/L), and high C-reactive protein (>29.35 mg/dL).
  • A risk score was developed using these factors to predict mortality probability.

Conclusions:

  • A novel risk score effectively predicts the probability of death in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
  • The score integrates multiple risk factors for improved prognostic accuracy.
  • This tool can aid clinicians in managing critically ill COVID-19 patients in Brazil.
Abstract

Keywords:
COVID-19in-hospital patientsmortality

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