Trajectories of prescription opioid and heroin use in adulthood

Due to a reduction in the availability of prescription opioids in the United States, the potential transition from prescription opioids to heroin is a public health concern. We assessed trajectories of both nonmedical prescription opioid (NMPO) and heroin use from adolescence (age 18) to adulthood (age 50) and how these trajectories were associated with substance use disorder (SUD) in adulthood (age 35-50).

A national sample of 26,569 individuals from eleven cohorts of US high school seniors (1976-1986) who were followed until age 50 (2008-2018). The analysis focuses on respondents who engaged in past-year NMPO and heroin use. Outcomes included the endorsement of two or more SUD symptoms.

Among NMPO users, 7.5% had used heroin by the age of 50. The latent profile analyses assessing individuals who reported both NMPO and heroin use during the 32-year study period found four unique trajectory groups: (1) "age 18 concurrent use" (81.2%); (2) "mid-30s NMPO-to-heroin use transition" (10.7%); (3) age 19/20 NMPO-to-heroin use transition, followed by 40s heroin-to-NMPO use transition (4.3%); and (4) "mid-20s NMPO-to-heroin use transition" (3.7%). Respondents in the "mid-30s NMPO-to-heroin use transition" trajectory group had the highest odds of indicating two or more SUD symptoms between ages 35-50.

This is the first study to assess NMPO and heroin use trajectories among a national probability-based sample followed from age 18 to 50. The findings suggest that prescription opioid misuse is a risk factor in the development of SUDs and has a long-term impact.