Disentangling snakebite dynamics in Colombia: How does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns?

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Climate science
• Disease ecology

Background:

• Understanding climate's role in zoonotic disease dynamics is crucial.
• Previous studies often used aggregated national data for retrospective analyses.
• Distinguishing climate-driven cycles from socioeconomic factors in disease incidence remains a key epidemiological question.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the influence of rainfall and temperature on snakebite dynamics using compartmental models.
• To investigate the spatial heterogeneity of climate-snakebite relationships in Colombia.
• To explore how climate seasonality modulates snakebite risk and encounter frequency with venomous snakes.

Main Methods:

• Utilized space-time datasets of snakebite incidence, rainfall, and temperature in Colombia.
• Employed stochastic compartmental models and iterated filtering techniques.
• Analyzed data across six distinct rainfall zones to assess spatial variations in the climate-snakebite relationship.

Main Results:

• Rainfall seasonality, not temperature, significantly drives snakebite incidence by modulating encounter frequency with venomous snakes.
• The relationship between rainfall and snakebite incidence is spatially heterogeneous, primarily impacting regions with pronounced dry seasons.
• Encounter frequency varies geographically, being higher in areas inhabited by Bothrops atrox.

Conclusions:

• Rainfall is a critical driver of snakebite seasonality in specific Colombian regions, particularly those with limited water resources during dry periods.
• The spatial distribution of snakebite risk is linked to venomous snake natural history traits and localized climate patterns.
• Findings underscore the importance of considering localized climate variations and ecological factors in managing snakebite as a neglected tropical disease.