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Disentangling snakebite dynamics in Colombia: How does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns?

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Climate, specifically rainfall patterns, significantly influences snakebite incidence in Colombia by affecting venomous snake encounters. This relationship is strongest in regions with distinct dry seasons, highlighting climate

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Climate science
  • Disease ecology

Background:

  • Understanding climate's role in zoonotic disease dynamics is crucial.
  • Previous studies often used aggregated national data for retrospective analyses.
  • Distinguishing climate-driven cycles from socioeconomic factors in disease incidence remains a key epidemiological question.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the influence of rainfall and temperature on snakebite dynamics using compartmental models.
  • To investigate the spatial heterogeneity of climate-snakebite relationships in Colombia.
  • To explore how climate seasonality modulates snakebite risk and encounter frequency with venomous snakes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized space-time datasets of snakebite incidence, rainfall, and temperature in Colombia.
  • Employed stochastic compartmental models and iterated filtering techniques.
  • Analyzed data across six distinct rainfall zones to assess spatial variations in the climate-snakebite relationship.

Main Results:

  • Rainfall seasonality, not temperature, significantly drives snakebite incidence by modulating encounter frequency with venomous snakes.
  • The relationship between rainfall and snakebite incidence is spatially heterogeneous, primarily impacting regions with pronounced dry seasons.
  • Encounter frequency varies geographically, being higher in areas inhabited by Bothrops atrox.

Conclusions:

  • Rainfall is a critical driver of snakebite seasonality in specific Colombian regions, particularly those with limited water resources during dry periods.
  • The spatial distribution of snakebite risk is linked to venomous snake natural history traits and localized climate patterns.
  • Findings underscore the importance of considering localized climate variations and ecological factors in managing snakebite as a neglected tropical disease.