The burning island: Spatiotemporal patterns of fire occurrence in Madagascar

Anthropogenic fire use is widespread across Madagascar and threatens the island's unprecedented endemic biodiversity. The vast majority (96%) of lemur species are already threatened with extinction, and Madagascar has already lost more than 44% of its forests. Previous conservation assessments have noted the role of fire in the rampant deforestation and habitat degradation across Madagascar, but published, quantified data on fire use across the island are incredibly limited. Here, we present the first quantification of spatiotemporal patterns in fire occurrence across Madagascar using VIIRS satellite fire detection data. We assess which regions of Madagascar have the most prevalent fire use, how fire use is changing over time, and what this means for Madagascar's remaining forest ecosystems. An average of 356,189 fires were detected every year in Madagascar from 2012-2019, averaging 0.604 fires/km2. Fire use was near-ubiquitous across the island, but was most prevalent in the western dry deciduous forests and succulent woodlands ecoregions. Fire frequency in the eastern lowlands was highest around the remaining humid rainforest, and fire frequency was increasing over time around much of the remaining humid and dry forest. We found that 18.6% of all remaining forest was within 500 m of a fire within a single year, and 39.3% was within 1 km. More than half of remaining forest was within 1 km of a fire in a single year in the dry deciduous forests, succulent woodlands, and mangroves ecoregions. However, fire frequency within national park protected areas was, on average, 65% lower than their surroundings. Only 7.1% of national park forest was within 500 m of a fire within one year, and 17.1% was within 1 km, suggesting that national parks are effective at reducing fire frequency in Madagascar's tropical forests.